FOMC Minutes and Tid Bits

February 21, 2013 by Leave a Comment

Yesterday the Fed released minutes from last month’s FOMC meeting. The minutes reveal the committee is debating easing or ceasing the purchase of mortgage backed securities before the end of this year. 

A number of participants stated that an ongoing evaluation of the efficacy, costs, and risks of asset purchases might well lead the Committee to taper or end its purchases before it judged that a substantial improvement in the outlook for the labor market had occurred.

The Fed cannot continue to keep mortgage rates at their manipulated lows forever. Industry experts estimate that if the Fed was not involved with keeping mortgage rates low with the buying of mortgage backed securities, rates would be closer to “jumbo” rates (about a full point higher in rate).

Other points I of interest from the minutes – at least to me 🙂  

…some participants were concerned that the recent increase in the payroll tax could have a significant negative effect on spending, particularly on the part of lower-income consumers.

Effective the beginning of this year, did you notice your pay check is 2% less? Congress allowed the expiration of the payroll tax cut to expire during the “fiscal cliff”. During 2011 and 2012, Americans caught a break and only paid 4.2% of their incomes for social security; we’re now back to paying 6.2%. If your monthly gross income is $5000, then your monthly take home pay is $100 less than what you had before this payroll tax.

If you’re a home owner who has not refinanced in the last year, you may want to contact your local mortgage professional to see if it makes sense. Reducing your mortgage rate can help off set the payroll tax and reduce the amount of interest you’re paying on your mortgage.  Click here if you would like a rate quote for homes located anywhere in Washington state.

Participants remarked on the ongoing recovery in the housing market, pointing variously  to rising house prices, growth in residential construction and sales, and the lower inventory of homes for sale. A number of participants thought it likely that higher home values and low mortgage rates were helping support other sectors of the economy as well, and a couple saw the housing market as having the potential to cause overall growth to be stronger than expected this year…

In the greater Seattle area, home prices continue to increase and I’m hearing from home buyers that they wish there was more inventory to chose from. If you’ve been considering selling your home, this could be a good time to meet with a real estate agent. If you need me to refer one to you, I’m happy to do so! 

….Nonetheless, it was noted that mortgage credit remained tight and the fraction of homeowners with mortgage balances exceeding the value of their homes remained high.

Those seeking a mortgage, whether it’s for refinancing or buying a home do need to qualify and it is a “full doc” process. However, it’s not impossible. You need to be prepared to provide all income and asset documents, have steady employment and good credit. If you are considering buying a home (or even refinancing) in the next 12 months, I recommend starting with a preapproval now. 

Home owners who are still upside down with the loss of their home equity may still be able to take advantage of today’s low rates if:

  • they qualify for the Home Affordable Refinance Program (HARP 2.0). This is eligible for conforming mortgages securitized by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac prior to June 1, 2009 on primary residences, second homes or investment properties. Or…
  • the existing mortgage to refinance is FHA, an FHA streamlined refinance may be possible for primary residence or investment properties. Or…
  • the existing mortgage is VA or USDA. 

If you are looking at buying a home or refinancing anywhere in the state of Washington, I’m happy to help you!

Filed Under: The Fed - FOMC Tagged With: , , ,

Mortgage rates could rise earlier than expected

January 4, 2013 by 1 Comment

Yesterday the minutes to the December 13, 2012 FOMC Meeting were released catching many off guard revealing the Fed may pull back on the purchase of mortgage backed securities earlier than originally planned.

Here are some bits from the minutes related to mortgage rates:

“While almost all members thought that the asset purchase program begun in September had been effective and supportive of growth, they also generally saw that the benefits of ongoing purchases were uncertain and that the potential costs could rise as the size of the balance sheet increased…

Several others thought that it would probably be appropriate to slow or to stop purchases well before the end of 2013, citing concerns about financial stability or the size of the balance sheet.”

Noting that “several others” of the FOMC are considering to pull back or stop buying mortgage backed securities prior to the end of 2013 caused a major sell off in the bond markets yesterday following the release of the minutes.

Mortgage rates have been at artificially low rates largely due to the Fed’s participation in buying mortgage backed securities (MBS). Should the Fed cease purchasing MBS and treasury securities, many anticipate that “real” mortgage rates would be closer to what we see in the jumbo or non-conforming markets. Currently jumbo rates are at least full point  in rate higher than conforming mortgage rates based on a 30 year fixed.

 

If you have been considering buying or refinancing your home and benefiting from today’s low rates, I recommend doing so soon.

If your home is located anywhere in Washington state, where I am licensed to originate mortgages, I am happy to help you! Click here for a mortgage rate quote.

Filed Under: Interest Rates, The Fed - FOMC Tagged With: , ,

The Fed says….Mortgage Rates to Remain Low

December 12, 2012 by 1 Comment

2012-08-20-0845This morning FOMC announced no changes to the current Fed Funds rate (this is no surprise). The Fed has decided to keep the Fed Funds rate at 0 – 0.25% until the unemployment rate is under 6.5%.  This may be some good news to home owners who have HELOCs as many of them have rates tied to the prime rate, which is based on the Fed Funds rate.

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Filed Under: Economy, Interest Rates, The Fed - FOMC Tagged With: , ,

Ben Bernanke says mortgage underwriting standards are too tight

November 16, 2012 by Leave a Comment

In his speech at Operation HOPE Financial Dignity Summit yesterday on the challenges of the housing market and mortgage lending, FOMC Chairman Bernanke expressed concerns that mortgage underwriting has become “overly tight”. 

“…Some tightening of credit standards was an appropriate response to the lax lending conditions that prevailed in the years leading up to the peak in house prices. Mortgage loans that were poorly underwritten or inappropriate for the borrower’s circumstances ultimately had devastating consequences for many families and communities, as well as for the financial institutions themselves and the broader economy.

However, it seems likely at this point that the pendulum has swung too far the other way, and that overly tight lending standards may now be preventing creditworthy borrowers from buying homes, thereby slowing the revival in housing and impeding the economic recovery.’

Borrowers who have recently purchased a home or closed on a non-streamlined refinance would most likely agree with Ben Bernanke’s views on underwriting guidelines. And for the most part, I do too. Today’s home buyer will often find every aspect of their income, assets and credit scrutinized. For example, Form 4506 (which was once used primarily for stated or no-income verified loans) is now pulled on every mortgage in process to obtain a copy of the tax transcripts for the the past two years. Any discrepancies between the 4506 and income supplied must be addressed, which often leads to the borrowers having to provide complete tax returns instead of just their W2’s. If a borrower has deposits on their bank statements that are not easily identified, they can expect to show proof of where that deposit came from. Credit reports may disclose information that the borrower may need to address as well beyond the good old “inquiry letter”. Now they disclose information about activity associated to a borrowers address that may or may not relate to the borrower. Don’t get me wrong, loans are closing however the process for some can require a great deal of patience and paperwork.

“When lenders were asked why they have originated fewer mortgages, they cited a variety of concerns, starting with worries about the economy, the outlook for house prices, and their existing real estate loan exposures. They also mention increases in servicing costs and the risk of being required by government-sponsored enterprises (GSEs) to repurchase delinquent loans (so-called putback risk).”

“Putbacks” are also referred to as “buy-backs”. And buy-backs tend to roll down hill to the source that originated the mortgage, including  banks and correspondent lenders like Mortgage Master Service Corporation. This happens when the loan (borrower) is not performing. The lender will go over the loan documents with a fine tooth comb to try to find fault in the underwriting so they can justify sending the loan (forcing a buy-back) to the originating lender. This is why many borrowers are having to over-document their finances.

The Federal Reserve’s Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey on Bank Lending Practices indicates that lenders began tightening mortgage credit standards in 2007 and have not significantly eased standards since.

Ben Bernanke and the Fed cannot control the underwriting guidelines and overlays that banks have for mortgage lending. I certainly do not want to see the loose underwriting of the subprime era return. However I do agree that for the most part, underwriting has become pretty tight and I would welcome more “common sense” for well qualified borrowers.

Mr. Bernanke needs to brush up on Frank Dodd and how it will continue impact the mortgage industry and underwriting guidelines.

Your thoughts?

Filed Under: Opinion, The Fed - FOMC, Underwriting and Qualifying Tagged With: , , ,

The Fed Says…Let’s Twist

September 13, 2012 by Leave a Comment

No surprise that the FOMC is not making any changes to the Fed Funds rate. What may have surprised some is the Fed’s focus on trying to keep mortgage rates low with it’s purchase of mortgage backed securities.  From today’s press release:

To support a stronger economic recovery and to help ensure that inflation, over time, is at the rate most consistent with its dual mandate, the Committee agreed today to increase policy accommodation by purchasing additional agency mortgage-backed securities at a pace of $40 billion per month. The Committee also will continue through the end of the year its program to extend the average maturity of its holdings of securities as announced in June, and it is maintaining its existing policy of reinvesting principal payments from its holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities in agency mortgage-backed securities. These actions, which together will increase the Committee’s holdings of longer-term securities by about $85 billion each month through the end of the year, should put downward pressure on longer-term interest rates, support mortgage markets, and help to make broader financial conditions more accommodative.

….If the outlook for the labor market does not improve substantially, the Committee will continue its purchases of agency mortgage-backed securities….

The efforts to keep mortgage rates low will be in contrast to the increase in the “g-fees” by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. It will be interesting to see how much of an impact the Feds efforts will make.

Stay tuned for Ben Bernanke’s press conference happening in a few hours. Meanwhile… let’s twist!

Filed Under: The Fed - FOMC Tagged With: , , , ,

What may impact mortgage rates the week of September 10, 2012

September 10, 2012 by Leave a Comment

Although at first glance, this week may seem like there’s not a lot scheduled that may impact mortgage rates, what is scheduled is significant. We have the FOMC meeting winding up on Thursday following last Friday’s weaker than expected Jobs Report. Friday is packed with reports that may reveal signs of inflation, which tends to drive mortgage rates higher. 

Here are some of the economic indicators scheduled for this week:

Thursday, Sept. 13:  FOMC Meeting; Producer Price Index (PPI); Initial Jobless Claims

Friday, Sept. 14: Retail Sales; Consumer Price Index (CPI); Consumer Sentiment Index (UoM)

For your personal mortgage rate quote for your home located anywhere in Washington state, please contact me.  

You can also follow me on Twitter or Facebook where I provide live rate quotes and mortgage tid-bits throughout the day.

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Filed Under: Economy, The Fed - FOMC Tagged With: , ,

The Difference One Dollar Makes: Conforming vs Jumbo Rates

July 14, 2011 by Leave a Comment

This morning via Twitter, Talon Title asked me what the difference in rate is between a conforming and jumbo mortgage. Currently, as of October 1, 2011, the jumbo loan limit is set to be reduced unless Congress passes an extension.  In the Seattle area, the loan amount for jumbos will be anything over $506,000 (currently the loan limit is $567,500) for a single family dwelling. Ben Bernanke has stated that private banking will step in to finance these borrowers needing a mortgage over the conforming loan amounts…this is at a price.  He doesn't feel this will squeeze those borrowers out of the market.  I wonder if this will squeeze more buyers into adjustable rate mortgages.

Here's the difference in rates based on current pricing (as of 8:30 a.m. on July 14, 2011) with 740+ credit and an 80% loan to value.  We know the difference in the greater Seattle area between a jumbo and conforming rate will be $61,500 in down payment or equity.

Conforming loan amount of $417,000 or lower.

30 Year Fixed:  4.500% (apr 4.602).  

5/1 ARM: 3.000% (apr 3.292).  With 5/2/5 caps, this product is fixed at 3.000% for 60 months (P&I $1686) and then may adjust up 5% to 8.000% at the 61st payment (P&I $2744) or as low as 2.25% (P&I $1114). The rate will continue adjust up or down no more than 2% annually on the anniversary date and may never be higher than 8% or lower than 2.25%. Based on a $400,000 loan amount.

Conforming High Balance loan amount of $417,001 to $567,500 (for King County, Snohomish County or Pierce County).

30 Year Fixed:  4.625% (apr 4.602).  

5/1 ARM: 3.875% (apr 3.912).  With 5/2/5 caps, this product is fixed at 3.875% for 60 months (P&I $2379) and then may adjust up 5% to 8.875% at the 61st payment (P&I $3786) or as low as 2.75% (P&I $2102). The rate will continue adjust up or down no more than 2% annually on the anniversary date and may never be higher than 8.875% or lower than 2.75%.  Based on a $506,000 loan amount.

5/1 ARM: 2.875% (apr 3.231).  With 5/2/5 caps, this product is fixed at 2.875% for 60 months (P&I $2099) and then may adjust up 5% to 7.875% (P&I $3420)at the 61st payment or as low as 2.25% (P&I $1953). The rate will continue adjust up or down no more than 2% annually on the anniversary date and may never be higher than 7.875% or lower than 2.25%.  NOTE: 5% additional down payment (75% LTV) is required for this scenario. Based on a $506,000 loan amount.

Non-Conforming – Jumbo loan amounts $567,501 and higher (until October 1, 2011).

30 Year Fixed:  5.250% (apr 5.371).  

5/1 ARM: 3.875% (apr 3.904).  With 5/2/5 caps, this product is fixed at 3.875% for 60 months (P&I $2669) and then may adjust up 5% to 8.875% at the 61st payment (P&I $4246) or as low as 2.75% (P&I $2358). The rate will continue adjust up or down no more than 2% annually on the anniversary date and may never be higher than 8.875% or lower than 2.75%.  Based on a $567,501 loan amount.

Let's pretend that it's October 1, 2011 and that the changes to conforming loan limits are in place and somehow, mortgage rates are exactly the same as what I've quoted above.

The difference between the conforming high balance and jumbo rates are currently 0.625% in interest rate with the 30 year fixed mortgage. A loan amount of $506,001 or more (proposed future jumbo) would have a $193 higher mortgage payment with the jumbo rate over the conforming high balance based on rates above.

Are people going to stop buying homes that are in the current conforming high balance price range?  I don't think so… I do think that when the conforming loan limits are reduced later this year, it will cause some to select mortgage programs they might not have considered such as adjustable rate mortgages or piggy-back second mortgages.  It seems to me that Congress should allow the temporary higher loan limits to stay in place until housing becomes more stable.  There was some discussion during testimony yesterday by Congressman Miller in California, however as I mentioned, Ben Bernanke doesn't seem to think that the reduction in loan limits will impact housing significantly.  We'll know more in a few months…and don't forget, Fannie has issued "warnings" via their FAQs that we may see loan limits further reduced effective January 1, 2012.

Just for fun… since we're pretending to be in the future, here's a trip down 80s memory lane: 

Filed Under: Fannie, Freddie and FHFA, Home Equity Loans & Second Mortgages, Interest Rates, The Fed - FOMC

Ben Bernanke’s Testimony to Congress

July 13, 2011 by Leave a Comment

As I write this post, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke is before the Financial Services committee of the House for the Semiannual Monetary Report to Congress. 

From his prepared testimony:

"…the ongoing weakness in home values is holding down household wealth and weighing on consumer sentiment."

This is why I feel so strongly that the Home Affordable Refinance program (HARP) should not require appraisal for borrowers who qualify based on credit, income and employment. The home is already depreciated, why not allow the homeowner to reduce their mortgage payment and possibly prevent a foreclosure?

Case in point, one of my clients in Federal Way contacted me to refinance their home. They are being relocated out of state and are converting their existing home to a rental since selling it right now is not an option.  They have a 5/1 ARM (set to adjust in 13 months) and are interested in a 7/1 ARM as they do not plan on retaining the home beyond 7 years. Their mortgage is securitized by Fannie Mae so they qualify for a Home Affordable refi which provides them a lower rate and allows higher loan-to-values (lower appraised values) for an investment property. With this proposed refinance, they are going to reduce their monthly mortgage payment by $389!  That's more money in the economy and helps this family manage having a rental with their relocation scenario….then we receive the appraisal which comes in lower than anticipated. 

Now my clients options are to (1) bring in cash to closing by reducing the loan amount to 95% of the appraised value (what's allowed with a HARP refi for investment properties) or (2) cancel the transaction. They elect to cancel. It just doesn't make sense to invest more in the home with the relocation especially with the timing of the relocation.  

More from Bernanke's prepared testimony:

"Mortgage interest rates are near record lows, but access to mortgage credit continues to be constrained. Also, many potential homebuyers remain concerned about buying into a falling market, as weak demand for homes, the substantial backlog of vacant properties for sale, and the high proportion of distressed sales are keeping downward pressure on house prices."

Allowing Home Affordable refi's to be more like an FHA Streamline refinance by not requiring an appraisal would also help stabilize home values by preventing additional homes from becoming distressed.  

These are highly qualified borrowers who want to keep their property (would prefer to sell but cannot) and who want to take advantage of low mortgage rates. It makes no sense to me that appraised values are factored in when the rest of transaction is strong.

This is a solution that could really help our housing recover.

Filed Under: The Fed - FOMC
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