What may impact mortgage rates the week of August 27, 2012

I am on a family vacation and will be returning to business as usual following Labor Day.  While I’m enjoying a few days off, here are some of the scheduled economic indicators that may impact mortgage rates this week.

Tuesday, August 28: Auto Sales and Consumer Confidence

Wednesday, August 29: GDP Chain Deflator, Gross Domestic Product (GDP), Pending Home Sales and Beige Book

Thursday, August 30: Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) and Initial Jobless Claims

Friday, August 31: Chicago PMI and Consumer Sentiment (UoM)

Of course unscheduled events may impact mortgage rates as well. Remember that typically if the stock market is rallying, mortgage rates tend to suffer as investors will trade the safety of bonds (like mortgage backed securities) for the potential higher return of stocks.

Mortgage Master Service Corporation will be closed on Monday, September 3, 2012 to celebrate Labor Day. 

Mortgage rate update for the week of August 20, 2012

Mortgage rates have been trending higher over the past few weeks (they are still very low).  Here are some of the scheduled economic indicators that may impact mortgage rates this week:

  • Wednesday, August 22: Existing Home Sales and FOMC Minutes
  • Thursday, August 23: Initial Jobless Claims and New Home Sales
  • Friday, August 24: Durable Good Orders

As I write this post (9:00 am PST) the DOW is at a 4.5 year high (13,260). Remember that as the stock markets improve, you will see investors trade the safety of bonds (like mortgage backed securities) for the possibility of higher returns of stocks. This will cause mortgage rates to trend higher as will signs of inflation or that the economy is improving.

Clients often ask me if the government controls mortgage rates and are surprised to learn they do not. The government has been involved with buying mortgage backed securities which is manipulating mortgage rates to lower levels however, they do not directly set mortgage rates. The Fed does set the Fed Funds Rate, which impacts the rates for HELOCs but not mortgage rates. 

Mortgage rates often change throughout the day. Last week, there were days where one of the lenders I work with issued three to five changes in just one day.  

Why getting a mortgage is more challenging today

Typically when I hear media say that it’s difficult or impossible to get a mortgage, my hair stands up on the back of my neck. Often times, they’re misstating mortgage programs and saying something like “you need 30% down payment and 760 credit scores to buy a home” which simply is not true. However something that I cannot argue is that it is more challenging to go through the mortgage process today.

The process is tedious as borrowers are asked to provide more supporting documentation to prove they’re qualified for the mortgage. I’m not saying this is a bad thing. If you’re a long time reader of my blog, you know I was never a fan of stated income mortgages. However it’s to a point where home buyers and home owners wanting to refinance are having to do things like document and prove where a large deposit from a month ago came from…even if they have plenty of funds for the transaction. Underwriters are calling for additional documentation.

This is partly happening because of tougher guidelines to make up for the sins of the subprime era of mortgages. Loosey goosey underwriting guidelines allowed just about anyone to obtain a mortgage with no regard to if the borrower would actually be able to make the mortgage payments. 

What’s also impacting guidelines are buy backs. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are pushing back loans that are not performing back to the banks.  If that loan was not originated by a bank (for example, a correspondent lender, like us), the bank will try to force the originating lender to buy back that loan. This is one reason why many banks prefer working with correspondent lenders over mortgage brokers – correspondent lenders have skin in the game.  From Reuters:

Historically, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac have taken banks at their word when they said loans were eligible. If later there were problems (because the borrower’s income was not properly verified, for example), then Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac could ask banks to buy back the mortgages at face value and absorb any losses.

Those repurchase requests are increasing as Fannie and Freddie apply more scrutiny. Both companies have hired more staff to comb through loans and determine which can be sold back to banks.

In the second quarter, outstanding repurchase requests at Fannie Mae grew by 20 percent to $14.6 billion from the first quarter, according to a filing last week.
 

In order for a bank or lender to have a fighting chance in not buying back the loan, they need to be able to show they had a complete and strong loan package with all of the borrowers supporting documentation to illustrate they qualified for the mortgage program.

You’re probably thinking that this sounds pretty fair. If a loan is not performing, then the originating lender should have to buy it back and deal with the losses. Banks are arguing that some loans that are not performing may be caused by the economy (loss of employment) and not due to the quality of the loan. A lender has to consider what are the odds the borrowers will be able to make the mortgage payments in the future.

As Fannie and Freddie increase scrutiny on mortgages and force more buy backs, banks will lend to fewer borrowers and toughen up guidelines. It’s already happening – just ask any HARP 2.0 borrower who’s trying to go back to their bank to refinance. Odds are, unless the refi has no pmi or lpmi, the bank may refuse it. Some banks have turned their backs on FHA streamlined refi’s as well.  Many banks are “cherry picking” mortgages…and with all the current volume, they can easily afford to. 

NOTE: If your bank has turned down your HARP 2.0 or FHA streamlined refinance on a home located anywhere in Washington, I’d love to see if I can help you. We work with several lenders who offer HARP 2.0 mortgages – even if you have LPMI. We are also still doing FHA streamlined refinances on Washington homes as well. One of the benefits of working at a correspondent lender is that we have several lenders to work with – we are not limited to one set of programs and guidelines. Click here for a mortgage rate quote. Okay… commercial over.

Watch for guidelines to continue to become tougher and expect to be asked for more and more documentation from your lender if you are considering a mortgage… we still have the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau fine tuning “the ability to repay”.  More mortgage fun coming your way soon!

With a little patience and cooperation with providing requested documentation to your mortgage professional, you will survive the mortgage process with success.

What may move mortgage rates the week of August 13, 2012

As I prepare this post (7:15 am) mortgage rates are much the same as what I was quoting on Friday: VERY LOW!  You can check out what mortgage rates I’m quoting for my Washington clients by following me on Twitter @mortgageporter.

The following are economic indicators scheduled to be released this week which may impact mortgage interest rates.

  • Tuesday, August 14: Retail Sales and Producer Price Index (PPI)
  • Wednesday, August 15: Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Empire State Index
  • Thursday, August 16: Initial Jobless Claims, Housing Starts, Building Permits and Philadelphia Fed Index
  • Friday, August 17: Consumer Sentiment Index

Remember, mortgage rates are based on mortgage backed securities (bonds). When the stock market is doing well, investors will trade the safety of bonds for the risk of a higher return with stocks, which causes mortgage rates to trend higher. Watch for signs of inflation with the economic data scheduled to be released this week as that may also impact mortgage rates for the worse. Unplanned events, such as what’s going on in the Euro-zone may also impact mortgage rates.

If you would like me to provide you a mortgage rate quote for your home located anywhere in Washington state, please click here.

Vacations over…I’m back to work!

I’m back to work after my vacation in Hawaii with my son. We had a great time exploring Oahu’s beautiful beaches. The last time I was in Hawaii was probably about 12 years ago when my husband was a county manager for a title insurance company. And we brought home beautiful weather to Seattle – wasn’t this weekend gorgeous?

Okay… back to work. This week we don’t have a lot on deck as far as scheduled economic indicators. 

Wednesday, August 8: Productivity

Thursday, August 9: Initial Jobless Claims

Watch for the results of the bond auctions starting Tuesday and ending Thursday when the Treasury will be selling $72B in notes and bonds.

Last Friday’s Jobs Report came in stronger than expected which has caused mortgage rates to trend higher.  With that said, mortgage rates are still extremely low.

As of 7:40 am this morning (8/6/2012), I’m quoting 3.500% (apr 3.579) for a 30 year fixed rate based on a sales price of $500,000 with a $400,000 loan amount (20% down) and low-mid credit scores of 740 closing in 30 days for a purchase in greater Seattle.

If you’re interested in a mortgage rate quote or getting preapproved for a purchase or refinance for a home located anywhere in Washington state, please contact me.