Should You Wait for 4.5% Mortgage Rates to Refi?

December 8, 2008 by 6 Comments

Personally, I would not wait for the proposed, much talked about 4.5% mortgage interest rate.  Check out the last word from this Sunday's Seattle PI's real estate section: "4.5% mortgage rate seen as possible".

For the most part, mortgage interest rates are determined by supply and demand: they are bonds (mortgage backed securities) that are traded.  The Treasury has been discussing buying mortgage backed securities (MBS) from Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac which should lower rates.  Mortgage interest rates are not set or directly controlled such as the Fed Funds rate where the Fed decides exactly how much the rate will adjust, if at all.  Another factor to consider, if this becomes more than the current speculation, is that the talk has just been about purchasing Fannie and Freddie MBS.  Those who would potentially benefit from the future lower rate would need to qualify for a conventional mortgage.

What would I do if I were considering a refinance?

  1. Contact a qualified mortgage professional who has the ability to float down or renegotiate your rate should they dramatically drop after your rate is locked.

  2. Consider pricing the mortgage as a no-cost refinance so that should rates drop low enough, you can refinance again should it be justified.   

  3. Have a plan.  Review your goals with your mortgage professional to make sure refinance makes sense.  If you're not planning on retaining your mortgage long enough to break even, it may not make sense to proceed with a refi.  Focusing just on the rate and not factoring in closing costs and break-even periods can be costly.

  4. Get ready.  Apply early so you're in the best position to lock.  If today's current rates do not pencil out, determine what rate will.  Some mortgage professionals will agree to a "forward lock" in the event your target rate (or better) becomes available.

If a refi boom happens, be prepared for the transaction to take longer.  Fact is, there are now fewer people in this industry from Loan Originators, Processors, Underwriters and Escrow Officers to handle the increased volumes. 

Questions?  I'm licensed to provide mortgage in Washington State.  Contact me.

Related posts:

Get Ready, Get Set: Refi!

Declining Home Values: Good for Buyers, Bad for Refi's

Why Your Loan Originator Needs a Complete Loan Application Before Locking

Filed Under: Refinance

Rates on Bank Websites

October 23, 2008 by Leave a Comment
I received this email from a client yesterday.  Since it’s a common question, I thought I’d share it with you:
“I just noticed on the [big bank’s] website that the conforming mortgage rate with 1 point is now 5.75.
Do you know what type of rate it would be for conforming jumbo without paying a point?
How much do you anticipate my closing costs will be if I decide to refinance?   I know [big bank] has a new program now where they pay for all closing costs besides interim interest and taxes when you refinance.   Do you know if any other banks offer the same program?”
Filed Under: Interest Rates, Refinance Tagged With: , ,

Declining Home Values: Good for Buyers – Bad for Refi’s

September 16, 2008 by Leave a Comment

Last Wednesday’s Seattle PI featured a front page article by Aubrey Cohen: Home values drop by double digits.   According to data by the NWMLS, the median sales price for houses in August 2008 for Seattle was $464,800; a 7.8% drop from July 2008 of $428,500 and 14.5% drop when compared to the median sales price from August 2007 of $501,000.   King County also dealing with a double digit drop.   The median sales price for houses in King County in August 2008 was $423,950; a 4.7% drop in one month with July 2008 at $445,000 and a 11.2% drop compared to August 2007 at $447,345.

If you’re a home buyer in this market, you’re in the drivers seat…and sitting pretty at that.  Listings are up 18.3% in King County (condos and houses) as compared to August of 2007; giving you plenty of choices.  Sellers are more likely to contribute towards your closing costs and prices are more attractive than recent years.

What if you all ready own a home and you’re considering refinancing?  Even though your home is your castle, the appraiser must use 3 recent sales (over the last 6 months is preferred) of homes similar to yours to come up with an appraised value.  This can be a little tricky with fewer sales AND lower sales prices.   Using the King County figures above and rates I’ve quoted at Mortgage Porter, this is how a refinance could be impacted:

Joe and Suzy purchased their home in King County for $447,345 in August 2007 utilizing a 30 year fixed mortgage at 6.625% with a loan amount of $357,900 (20% down payment).  They are now interested in taking advantage of our lower rates and decide to refinance since rates are close to a full 1% lower with zero points and they’re going to stay in their home for at least the next five years.   They have not paid additional towards their principal and their current balance is now around $354,250 with a principal and interest payment of $2,291.67.

An appraisal reveals that their home, based on what others like theirs have recently sold for, is now worth $423,950.  The best priced rate/term refinance (assuming perfect credit) is an 80% loan to value.  80% of $423,950 is $339,160.  If Joe and Suzy want to drop their rate by one point, they would need to bring in $15,000, not including closing costs if they want to avoid private mortgage insurance.  (Second mortgages are now pretty tough to come by these days).

Joe and Suzy’s home may be worth more than average.  Loan originators do not know what the value will be until we receive the appraisal.  I do have some resources available (such as researching comps via the title company) however, it’s just a rough idea.  Be wary of any loan originator who promises you that your home value will be perfect for a refinance.

Joe and Suzy’s options (if they want to refi) are:

  1. Bring in $15,000 plus closing costs (approx. $2600) to closing to pay down principal to 80% of present value.  Principal and interest payment = $2,033.44 – based on 30 yr at 6.00% at 0 pts (apr 6.063).   A savings of $258 per month, at a cost of $17,600, Joe and Suzy really need to decide if this is the best use of their money.  Based on their monthly savings, they’ll break even in approx. 5 and a half years.   
  2. Private mortgage insurance.  Paying off the entire mortgage balance plus closing costs provides a loan to value of approx. 85%.  Principal, interest and mortgage insurance based on 5.875% at 0.75% pts (apr 6.005) = 2,227.70.  This is a monthly savings of $63.97.  Suzy and Joe do not have to bring in $15,000 to pay down their principal, however it will take almost 7 years to break even on the cost of this refinance. 
  3. Rates with LPMI (lender paid mortgage insurance) are not competitive for this scenario. 
  4. FHA has monthly and upfront mortgage insurance.  Unless their motivations are other than reducing their rate, this is not a valid option for this scenario.

Even if our local market has hit bottom, appraised values will be impacted for several months until home values begin to appreciate.   Appraised values are a reflection of what has sold in the past.  Appraised values may continue to trend lower for refinances. 

Glenn Crellin, director of Washington Center for Real Estate Research at Washington State University states (from Aubrey Cohen’s article) regarding the recent drop in rates from the Fannie/Freddie takeover his expectation is:

"those decline in rates are going to be relatively short term." 

And to those who are trying to get the "bottom" of the market for home prices, he says it’s "nearly impossible".  Let’s face it, we really won’t know where the bottom is until prices are heading back up.

If you are considering refinancing, I do recommend that you contact your mortgage professional soon and "be real" about your home value.  I don’t encourage waiting with median sales price declines at 4.7 (King County) to 7.8 (Seattle) per month as it’s eating away at your equity and refi options. 

If you are considering buying a home, proceed with getting preapproved so you’re ready to make an offer should you find the home you’re looking for.

Related Post:

When Appraisals Come in Low for a Refi

Filed Under: Appraisals, Economy, Refinance, Residential Purchase, Seattle

Get Ready, Get Set: Refi!

September 9, 2008 by Leave a Comment

Go

Mortgage interest rates are back at attractive level ranging in the mid-5s for a 30 year fixed with only one point (high5’s with zero points).   Our last refinance opportunity was an exercise in frustration for many.   Home owners were contacting their loan originators with "what’s the rate now?" and calling later that day or next with the same question.   Mortgage interest rates are a moving target.  In our present market, I’m receiving on average 2-3 rate sheets per day.   Mortgage interest rates can move just as quickly up as they have down.  In addition, there are fewer and fewer loan originators remaining in the market to help those who are ready to refinance.   

If you are serious about refinancing, I suggest the following:

  1. Contact your local Mortgage Professional (sorry, I can only help those who have property in the State of Washington) to find out what the current rates are and to see if refinancing makes sense for you.
  2. Have a recent mortgage statement or your Note to provide detailed information.
  3. Complete a loan application and be prepared to have your credit report ran (interest rates are very credit score sensitive).
  4. Have your most recent paystubs and last W2 ready.  Your LO may also want your last bank statements and copies of your drivers license.

Refinances take approximately 30 days in this market, assuming there are no issues with your appraisal (a second appraisal or additional comps may cause extra time).   Make sure that your Mortgage Professional is allowing plenty of time for your lock in order to avoid needing an extension.

If rates stay low and enough people take advantage and jump on the refi bandwagon, be prepared for the process to take longer than it seems it should.  It’s a simple fact in this market there are fewer people doing the same amount of work.  Every aspect of the transaction may become bogged down.   

If you have a mortgage with a higher rate with a loan amount of $522,100 – $567,500, you may really want to act soon with your refinance as conforming jumbo and FHA jumbo loan limits are being reduced at the first of the year to $522,100.

Have a little patience, cooperate with your Mortgage Professional and get your lower mortgage interest rate.

Filed Under: Refinance

How Will the New Jumbo Limits Impact You?

August 21, 2008 by Leave a Comment

If you’re buying a home $520,000 or below over the next year, you won’t really be impacted by the reduced FHA Jumbo and Conforming Jumbo limits.   However, if you’re considering buying a home with minimum down, you’re losing $45,000 of financing power on January 1, 2008 with a $522,100 loan limit.

I wrote an article at Rain City Guide in June about how much home $17,550 can buy you in King, Pierce and Snohomish County with the current loan limit of $567,500.  The answer: $585,000 utilizing a FHA Jumbo.   Once the new loan limit is in place for our region, the most you can buy with minimum down will be closer to $540,000.   Although the new minimum required investment at 3.5% (effective October 1, 2008) will increase the amount required to $18,900 (based on a $540,000 sales price).

Want to do conventional 20% down and stay away the "true jumbo" rates by utilizing the maximum conforming jumbo?  Currently, a sales price (or appraised value in the case of a refinance) of $709,000 will get you pretty close to the existing limit at $567,200.  As of January 1, 2009, that sales price (or appraised value) is reduced to $652,500 for a loan amount of $522,000.

Refinances may also be impacted depending on what the payoffs are on the existing balances and if it’s classified as a "cash out" refinance (second mortgages not obtained from when you purchased your home is considered cash out) which have tougher guidelines than a "rate term" refinance.  Underwriting guidelines continue to tighten and will continue as well.

As always, I highly recommend that if you are considering buying or refinancing in the next year, to contact a local Mortgage Professional at your earliest convenience.   The loan limits may not even impact you, it’s never to early to prepare considering our current climate. 

Filed Under: FHA, Jumbo/Non-Conforming, Refinance, Residential Purchase

Conforming/FHA Jumbo Limit to Decrease January 1, 2009

August 12, 2008 by Leave a Comment

November 7, 2008 Update: FHFA has announced the new conforming jumbo loan limits for 2009 which are based on a lower median home price than used here (which was 2008’s limits).  Based on these figures, a single family unit will be $506,000 for King, Pierce and Snohomish Counties.  Read more here.

Recent legislation, HR 3221 included what the new conforming loan limits will be.  Our conforming-jumbo limits will be rolled back slightly to the following effective for all mortgage loans not closed December 31, 2008.   Here’s what the new limits will be effective January 1, 2009 (based on HUD’s current median home prices at the time of this post):

King, Pierce and Snohomish Counties:

Single Family:  $506,000 $522,100 ($567,500 until 12/31/2008)

Two Family:  $668,350 ($726,500 until 12/31/2008)

Three Family: $807,850 ($878,150 until 12/31/2008)

Four Family: $1,004,000 ($1,091,350 until 12/31/2008)

Kitsap County:

Single Family:  $437,000 ($475,000 until 12/31/2008)

Two Family:  $559,450 ($608,100 until 12/31/2008)

Three Family:  $676,250 ($735,050 until 12/31/2008)

Four Family:  $840,350 ($913,450 until 12/31/2008)

San Juan County:

Single Family:  $546,250 ($593,750 until 12/31/2008)

Two Family:  $699,250 ($760,100 until 12/31/2008)

Three Family:  $845,250 ($918,800 until 12/31/2008)

Four Family: $1,050,500 ($1,141,850 until 12/31/2008)

Clark and Skamania Counties:

Single Family: $417,000 ($418,750 until 12/31/2008)

Two Family:  $533,850 ($536,050 until 12/31/2008)

Three Family:  $645,300 ($648,000 until 12/31/2008)

Four Family:  $801,950 ($805,300 until 12/31/2008)

Jefferson County:

Single Family:  $417,000 ($437,500 until 12/31/2008)

Two Family:  $533,850 ($560,050 until 12/31/2008)

Three Family:  $645,300 ($677,000 until 12/31/2008)

Four Family:  $801,950 ($841,350 until 12/31/2008)

Watch for my follow up post on what this means to you.

Read my related articles on HR 3221:

First Time Home Buyers Tax Credit

Down Payment Assistance Programs Days are Numbered

Filed Under: FHA, Jumbo/Non-Conforming, Legislation, Mortgage, Refinance, Residential Purchase, Seattle

Why Your Loan Originator Needs a Complete Application BEFORE Locking a Rate

May 19, 2008 by Leave a Comment

A home owner contacted me wanting to know how their rate could change so much from their original lock with his current lender for his refinance.   He thought this was his scenario:

15 Year Fixed Rate at 5.375% (I’m assuming that he was paying a point–I cannot tell from this lenders lock confirmation).  Here are the other factors this rate was based on for a $417,000 loan amount:

  • Rate Term Refinance (no cash out, he’s actually bringing cash to closing in order to bring his loan amount down to the conforming level).
  • 700 Mid Scores
  • 62% Loan to Value

The LO locked in the rate based on this information about two weeks ago and just provided a "lock confirmation".  It’s actually a lock request with the lender she’s brokering the loan to.   Two weeks later, the borrower finds out that his loan is being priced based on the following:

15 Year Fixed Rate at 5.75% or 15 Year Fixed Rate at 5.375% plus 1.50 additional points.  Why the change?  After 2 weeks, the LO lets the borrower know that the loan is repriced due to:

  • Cash Out Refinance = 0.75% Hit to Fee.  He has a second mortgage that is being paid off with the refinance that was not from when he purchased his home. Fannie/Freddie classify this (paying off a non-purchase money second) as a "cash out" refinance, even though he’s bringing cash to closing.
  • 627 Mid Credit Score with a 70% loan to value = 0.75% Hit to Fee.  This came to a surprise to the borrower who actually thought his scores were much higher.  With Fannie/Freddie’s credit score (risked based) pricing, this is another whammo to the borrower.

Cash out and the borrowers credit scores should have been known to the Loan Originator if not prior to locking the loan, then mere moments afterward.  The LO should have immediately notified their client of the differences between the information used to lock the mortgage and reality.

Loan to value can be tricky for a LO to know with certainty…especially these days.  We often have to rely on our clients to give us an honest estimate of what they feel their home is worth based on what other homes like theirs have sold for in their neighborhood.   Until we have the appraisal, we do not know how the home will be valued.    

I’m sharing this story because there are valuable lessons here for us to learn from.

Borrowers:

  1. If you’re serious about locking in a mortgage rate, complete a loan application for your Mortgage Professional and allow them to run your credit.
  2. Obtain a written Lock Confirmation within 48 hours of locking in your rate.
  3. If you smell something fishy…it’s probably shark.

Loan Originators:

  1. If you have bad news (lower credit score, repriced lock, low appraisal, etc.) deliver it right away.  Don’t wait…it’s not going to go away.  Let your client know in full detail what you’re having to deal with and what steps you’re going to take to remedy with.
  2. Whenever the terms or cost of the proposed mortgage change, contact your client and provide them with an updated Good Faith Estimate. 

Currently, this borrower feels the LO gambled his mortgage interest rate.  After reviewing the documentation I’ve been provided, I think it’s more likely that she was just really a really poor communicator.   Perhaps she was hoping rates would improve enough to absorb the significant 1.5% hit to fee…I can really only guess.

This is far more than a getting a "rate quote" and saying, "that sounds good, lock it".  When you’re locking in your interest rate, you are commiting to the Loan Originator and the Loan Originator is making a commitment to the lender that the loan will be funded.  Your lock is only as good as the information used when it was submitted to the lender. 

Filed Under: Mortgage, Predatory Lending, Refinance, Residential Purchase

I Love Checking Out ARMs: Reviewing An Existing Mortgage

April 15, 2008 by 1 Comment

Recently a friend approached me confessing to having one of those "awful adjustable mortgages"…she thinks she needs to refinance and take advantage of today’s lower rates.   Before assuming that someone "needs" to refinance, I like to review their current mortgage and what their financial goals are.  Sometimes, people do not need to refinance…they just need to understand their mortgage terms.

Current Mortgage:  P&I Payment $3,330 (original balance $520,000).

  • 7/1 Adjustable Rate Mortgage: Note Rate 6.625%
  • Caps: 2/2/5
  • Margin: 2.25
  • Index: 1 Year LIBOR (currently 2.637% as of this the date of this post).

There is approx. 65 months remaining with the fixed period rate of 6.625% before the mortgage adjusts.   When the mortgage adjusts, the new rate will be 2.25% plus the current 1 year LIBOR rate EXCEPT the rate will be no lower than 4.625% and no higher than 8.625% due to the 2% adjustment cap. 

Best case scenario at first adjustment date with current mortgage:

Rate: 4.625% with principal and interest payments for 12 months of $2,780.   Note: If the mortgage was adjusting today, the rate would be closer to the best case scenario at 4.875% (2.25% plus 2.637% = 4.887% rounded to the nearest 0.125%).  Alas…they have 65 more months before knowing what the going rate for the 1 Year LIBOR will be.

Worse case scenario at first adjustment date with current mortgage:

Rate:  8.625% with principal and interest payments for 12 months of $3,937.

Possible scenarios that I suggested:

Refinancing into a conforming-jumbo mortgage 30 year fixed at 6.375%.  This would provide a principal and interest payment of $3,232.   With closing costs at $2900, they will break even on this scenario in 30 months.  From 30 months (the break even point) to when the fixed period of the ARM is over, the savings based on the monthly payment would be $3430.

Restructuring the existing mortgage into two mortgages with a conforming first at $417,000 at 5.875% and second mortgage paying off the balance (they can opt for a fixed second or a HELOC).   With a principal and interest payments of $3,194 and closing costs of $3,200; it will take 24 months to break even on this scenario.   From 24 months to when the fixed period of the ARM is over, the savings based on the difference between the monthly payments would be $5,576. 

LiborcompThis chart, which I created utilizing The Mortgage Coach, is factoring in the 2.25% margin to the LIBOR rate back to January 1999.  You can see there is a significant range with the rate.   Home owners with ARMs based on the LIBOR rate from 2002 to 2004 were probably grinning from ear to ear (depending on what their margin was) when you see what their rate was compared to the 30 year fixed.  Timing is everything with an adjustable rate mortgage.

What ever the home owner decides to do is completely up to them.  Of course one of their options is to not refinance and wait to see what the new rate (LIBOR) will be in 65 months.   If they wound up with a "best case scenario" new payment, it would be pretty sweet however the cost of paying the higher payment for 65 month and we don’t know what the index will be at the date of adjustment.    Understanding your mortgage and knowing your available options just starts with contacting your local Mortgage Professional. 

By the way, if you are a Washington State  home owner who has not heard from your loan originator lately or if you would like me to adopt your mortgage, please contact me.   Many LO’s have left the industry or do not provide service once the loan has closed.  I’m happy to review your ARM (or fixed rate mortgage) without any obligation to refinance. 

Filed Under: Adjustable Rate Mortgage (ARM), Jumbo/Non-Conforming, Refinance
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