This week is packed with economic indicators that tend to impact mortgage rates. Remember, mortgage rates are based on mortgage backed securities (bonds) and may change throughout the day. Signs of inflation tend to cause mortgage rates to rise higher. The release of economic data is not the only thing that impact rates – unplanned (and planned) world events may also impact mortgage rates. Typically, investors will seek the safety of bonds when the stock market is deteriorating and the reverse is true. When the DOW is tanking, mortgage rates tend to improve. During a volatile day, it’s not unusual to have 3 – 5 rate changes.
Here are some of the economic indicators scheduled to be released this week. The JOBS report is the “big daddy” this week which indicates how the economy is recovering and if we have wage inflation.
- Mon., April 30: Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) and Chicago PMI
- Tue., May 1: ISM Index
- Wed., May 2: ADP National Employment Report
- Thur., May 3: Initial Jobless Claims, Productivity and ISM Services Index.
- Fri., May 4: THE JOBS REPORT
As I write this post, the DOW is down about 31 points. Mortgage backed securities (Fannie Mae 30 yr 3.5%) are up about 12 bps.