Welcome to this week’s Mortgage Porter Weekly update! In this video, I cover last week’s labor market data, where mortgage rates stand according to the Optimal Blue index, the economic reports to watch this week, and a look at where mortgage-backed securities are trading this morning. Plus, this week’s spotlight is for anyone who’s been turned down for a mortgage – don’t give up!
Recap From Last Week
Last week, labor market data was the main focus, led by Friday’s jobs report. Employers shed 23,000 jobs in July, compared with expectations for an increase of about 80,000. On top of that, job gains for May and June were revised lower by a combined 103,000, suggesting the labor market has been weaker than previously reported.
Other reports reinforced that trend. ADP estimated private employers added just 44,000 jobs in July, well below expectations, with hiring concentrated in education and health services. Revelio Labs also estimated weaker hiring, with healthcare accounting for more than one-third of new jobs. Job openings slipped to 7.36 million in June, and the employment component of the ISM Services Index fell into contraction territory. Job site ZipRecruiter also described the labor market as subdued in its latest earnings report.
One encouraging sign: initial unemployment claims remain relatively low, suggesting layoffs are still limited. However, continuing claims remain elevated, meaning many people who lose their jobs are taking longer to find new work. Overall, last week’s reports point to a job market that continues to cool – an important trend as the Federal Reserve considers its next interest rate decision.
Optimal Blue Rate Index
Optimal Blue reports the average 30-year fixed rate, as of last Friday, August 7th, at 6.640% – slightly improved compared to what I shared with you last week. It’s very close to where we were in rates this time last year. You can see on the graph that the low point for the 30-year fixed rate was just below 6%, prior to the conflict in Iran.
Please remember: this Optimal Blue index reflects approximately 35% of mortgage transactions – lenders who use OB. You cannot lock in last week’s rates today, and your credit score, loan-to-value, and other factors will impact what rate you may qualify for. This is simply intended to give you a sense of how rates are trending. Please contact me for current mortgage rates.
Economic Calendar
We’ll be watching the CPI and PPI reports this week, as they’re key indicators of inflation. The forecast is for CPI to show inflation rose 0.1% in July, bringing the year-over-year number down from 3.5% to 3.4%. The core reading is expected to rise 0.2%, with its year-over-year figure declining from 2.6% to 2.5%. Let’s hope the data comes in tame – mortgage rates, or more specifically the mortgage-backed securities they’re based on, tend to react negatively to signs of inflation, which can push rates higher.
- Monday: No economic reports
- Tuesday: ADP Weekly, Existing Home Sales
- Wednesday: Consumer Price Index (CPI)
- Thursday: Jobless Claims, Producer Price Index (PPI)
- Friday: Retail Sales, Consumer Sentiment
Next FOMC meeting: September 15–16, 2026. CME FedWatch odds currently show a 52% probability of a 25 basis point move.
Morning MBS Update
As of around 11:30 am Pacific Time, MBS are down 19 basis points, and the Dow is down 183 points – largely due to oil prices, higher yields on U.S. Treasuries, and continued uncertainty tied to the Strait of Hormuz.
In the Spotlight: Turned Down for a Mortgage? Don’t Give Up.
Have you been turned down for a mortgage? Get a second opinion. I’m happy to review your scenario for a home purchase or refinance here in Washington state. Some lenders may lack the experience or product options to help with your specific situation.
The worst case? We work together on a strategy and build a game plan so you can eventually buy or refinance. The best case? I have a solution for you right now. Between traditional mortgage programs, portfolio and specialty loans, and my ability to broker loans too – there’s usually a path forward. Don’t give up!
Let’s Talk About Your Scenario
If you have questions about your specific scenario – whether you’re buying, refinancing, exploring a retirement mortgage, or just figuring out your options – I’m always happy to help.
About Rhonda Porter
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