I’m back after taking last week off to go sailing around south Puget Sound. This week we’ve got a lot to cover — Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech, fresh inflation and housing data, jobs week on the economic calendar, and a look at long-term home price appreciation.
Recap From Last Week
Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s speech at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium was the big story for markets on Friday. He made clear that getting inflation back to the Fed’s 2% target remains his top priority, and that the underlying trend hasn’t improved enough yet to ease off.
That followed Wednesday’s inflation reports: headline PCE rose 0.2% in July, with annual inflation holding at 3.7%. Core PCE, which excludes food and energy, also rose 0.2%, with annual core inflation at 3.3%. The Dallas Fed’s Trimmed Mean measure — which filters out unusually large price swings — showed underlying inflation closer to target, at 2.3% over the past year.
On the housing side, new home sales declined 10.5% in July, though June’s figure was revised higher. The median new home price also dipped 2.3%, but that’s largely a mix shift toward homes in the $300,000–$399,999 range rather than a sign of falling values. In fact, Case-Shiller data showed home prices rose 0.4% from May to June. Even modest appreciation adds up over time — a $500,000 home appreciating at 3% a year gains roughly $15,000 in value in the first year alone.
Second-quarter GDP grew at an annualized 1.5%, matching the initial estimate. And over the weekend, the war with Iran heated up — along with Ukraine’s attack on Russia’s second-largest oil refinery — which isn’t helping oil prices, and could add pressure to mortgage rates in the weeks ahead.
Optimal Blue Rate Index
Optimal Blue reports the average 30-year fixed rate, as of last Friday, August 28th, at 6.688%. That’s essentially unchanged from where I reported two weeks ago, and very close to where rates stood this time last year.
Please remember: this Optimal Blue index reflects about 35% of mortgage transactions nationwide — it’s not a rate quote. You can’t lock in last week’s rate today, and your credit score, loan-to-value ratio, and other factors will affect what you actually qualify for. This is simply meant to show you the trend.
Economic Calendar: It’s Jobs Week
ADP is expected to show 47,000 jobs added, and the BLS Jobs Report is anticipated at 58,000, with unemployment holding steady at 4.1%. The next Fed meeting is two weeks away, and odds currently sit at 68% for a 25-basis-point rate increase.
- Monday: No economic reports
- Tuesday: JOLTS
- Wednesday: ADP Employment
- Thursday: Jobless Claims
- Friday: BLS Jobs Report
Next FOMC Meeting: September 15–16, 2026
CME FedWatch Odds: 68% probability of a 25 basis point increase
In the Spotlight: Long-Term Home Appreciation
Housing continues to stand out as a long-term investment. A new Fannie Mae/Pulsenomics survey of leading economists projects home prices will rise about 2.6% over the next year and roughly 15% over five years. For a $500,000 home, that’s around $13,000 in appreciation over the next 12 months, and about $75,000 over five years — highlighting housing’s continued wealth-building potential.
I have a tool that uses appreciation forecasts down to the zip-code level to show potential home values — the key word being potential, since it’s just a forecast. It also factors in your return on investment, including your down payment and closing costs. If you’d like to see an appreciation forecast with a potential rate of return for your neighborhood, just let me know.
Let’s Talk About Your Scenario
If you have questions about your specific situation — whether you’re buying, refinancing, considering a retirement mortgage, or just exploring your options — I’d love to hear from you. I’m always happy to help.
About Rhonda Porter
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