The Mortgage Porter Weekly | June Jobs Miss, Steady Rates & Total Cost Analysis

Job growth came in soft, mortgage rates held steady, and oil prices remain in focus as the situation in the Middle East continues to develop. Here’s your Mortgage Porter Weekly update for the week of July 6th, 2026.

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Recap From Last Week

This week’s economic data offered a mixed picture of the job market. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported the economy added just 57,000 jobs in June — well below the 110,000 that was forecast. ADP’s report told a similar story, with private employers adding only 98,000 jobs.

There were some encouraging signs, too. Job openings rose to 7.6 million in May, beating expectations, though still below the highs seen in 2022. Initial unemployment claims stayed relatively low, but continuing claims remained elevated, suggesting it’s taking longer for some workers to find their next job. On a brighter note, Challenger, Gray & Christmas reported job cuts fell 53% in June compared to May, though AI-related restructuring remained the leading cause of layoffs for the fourth straight month.

In housing, prices continued their upward climb. The latest Case-Shiller report showed national home prices rose 0.8% from March to April, following a 0.7% increase the month prior. The FHFA House Price Index showed similar momentum, with a 0.7% gain in April after increases of 1.0% in March and 0.9% in February for conventionally financed homes.

Meanwhile, oil continues to flow through the Strait of Hormuz, though markets remain watchful given ongoing tensions in the region.

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Mortgage Rates: Optimal Blue Index

As of last Friday, July 3rd, Optimal Blue’s index has the average 30-year fixed rate at 6.463% — essentially unchanged from the prior week.

Please note: This index reflects roughly 35% of mortgage transactions nationwide from lenders who report to Optimal Blue. It is not a rate quote, and rates change daily. Your credit score, loan-to-value ratio, and other factors will determine the rate you actually qualify for. This is intended to give you a sense of the trend, not a personal rate quote.

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This Week’s Economic Calendar

• Monday: ISM Services Index
• Tuesday: ADP Weekly
• Wednesday: Fed Minutes
• Thursday: Jobless Claims, Existing Home Sales
• Friday: No economic reports scheduled

Next FOMC Meeting: July 28–29, 2026
CME FedWatch currently places the odds at 75% for rates holding steady, with roughly a 25% chance of a quarter-point increase.

This week’s data will likely take a back seat to developments in the Iran conflict and their impact on oil prices.

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Morning MBS Update

As of 11:00 a.m. Pacific this morning, mortgage-backed securities are flat.

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In the Spotlight: Total Cost Analysis

This week I want to highlight a tool I use with every one of my clients: the Total Cost Analysis.

This tool compares different loan programs and price points side by side, and projects how each performs over time — not just today, but down the road. It’s designed to help you make a truly informed decision about your mortgage.

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Let’s Talk

If you have questions about your specific scenario — whether you’re buying, refinancing, or just exploring your options — I’d love to hear from you.

👉 Schedule Your Free Discovery Call  ·  Get a Rate Quote  ·  Contact Rhonda

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Rhonda Porter · Senior Loan Consultant · NMLS #121324 · Licensed in Washington State since 2000.