It’s the first week of June! Here is this week’s Mortgage Porter Weekly.
Last Week in Review
The economic spotlight last week was squarely on inflation. Headline PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures) rose 0.4% in April — just a touch below expectations — but the annual rate climbed to 3.8%. Core PCE, which excludes food and energy and is the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, rose 0.2% for the month. The annual core rate edged up to 3.3%, still well above the Fed’s 2% target.
The Fed continues to navigate two competing pressures: inflation that’s still running too high, and early signs of labor market softening. Geopolitical tensions — particularly Iran halting dialogue after Israeli strikes on Lebanon and threatening to block the Strait of Hormuz — are keeping energy prices (and inflation risk) elevated.
On housing:
- New home sales fell 6.2% in April, ending two straight months of gains. Affordability remains a challenge.
- Case-Shiller shows national home prices are up 0.7% year-over-year.
- FHFA reports a stronger 1.7% annual gain for homes backed by conventional loans.
- Economists surveyed by Fannie Mae and Pulsenomics project approximately 14% cumulative home price growth over the next five years — roughly $84,000 in appreciation on a $600,000 home.
Mortgage Rates: Optimal Blue Index
As of Friday, May 29th, the Optimal Blue 30-year fixed rate index averaged 6.438% — a slight improvement from the prior week.
The Optimal Blue index reflects approximately 35% of mortgage transactions and is not a rate quote. Your actual rate will depend on your credit score, loan-to-value ratio, loan type, and other factors. Contact Rhonda for a personalized rate quote scenario.
Economic Calendar: Jobs Week
This week is one of the most data-heavy on the calendar:
| Day | Report |
|---|---|
| Monday | ISM Manufacturing |
| Tuesday | JOLTS Job Openings |
| Wednesday | ADP Employment, ISM Services, Fed Beige Book |
| Thursday | Weekly Jobless Claims |
| Friday | BLS Jobs Report |
Next FOMC Rate Decision: June 17, 2026
Keep in mind — all of this data will compete for market attention with headlines out of the Middle East. Oil prices are moving on Iran-related news, and that’s already putting pressure on mortgage-backed securities this morning.
Morning MBS Update
As of approximately 9:10 AM Pacific, mortgage-backed securities are declining. Rising oil prices — driven by escalating tensions involving Iran — are pushing inflation expectations higher, which puts downward pressure on bonds and, in turn, on mortgage rates. We’ll be watching closely this week.
Spotlight: Non-QM Mortgages
Not every borrower fits neatly into a conventional loan box — and that’s okay. Non-QM (Non-Qualified Mortgage) programs are designed for exactly those situations.
Non-QM loans can be a strong fit for:
- Self-employed borrowers with non-traditional income documentation
- Real estate investors using DSCR (Debt Service Coverage Ratio) loans
- Borrowers with higher debt-to-income ratios
- Those using bank statements or asset depletion to qualify
If you’ve been told you don’t qualify, there may be more options than you think. Learn more about Non-QM mortgages in Washington State →
Questions About Your Mortgage?
Whether you’re buying, refinancing, or just exploring your options, I’d love to help. Let’s talk — every scenario is different, and I’m always happy to take a look.
About Rhonda Porter
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